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As of this writing, 80-to-1 Haliburton odds are available.
We discussed why the NBA MVP competition is usually rather small before to the season. Usually, a particular season produces only few prospects. The honour usually goes to players between the ages of 24 and 28 who have just finished All-NBA seasons and average at least 25 points per game, according to history. Though there have been unexpected MVP winners in the past, like as Steve Nash or Derrick Rose, we often know very well ahead of time who the main contenders are.
Nevertheless, we’re terrible at projecting who will win MVP throughout the season, for whatever reason. Joel Embiid was the winner the year before, as an example. Embiid was voted tenth by voters in December, when ESPN’s Tim Bontemps held the first of his three mid-season straw polls. In the initial 2021–22 straw poll, Nikola Jokic came in fifth, but in the 2020–21 campaign, he came in third. Jayson Tatum, the winner of the first straw poll conducted last year, came in fourth. LeBron James, the leader from 2021, ended 13th, while Stephen Curry, the leader from 2022, finished eighth.
We don’t tend to pick the wrong race in November and December for any one reason. Injuries can occur at times. Surprising team performances can occur occasionally. Players occasionally just become hot and then cool off. In any case, we have a strong history of incorrect early season odds. Predicting which of the favourites will slip away is not very useful. You either have the tickets at this point or you don’t. Still, there may be merit in looking for a dark horse.
A few unimportant candidates are worth keeping an eye on. Right present, most bookies have Anthony Edwards at a 20-to-1 ratio. If you’re looking for a narrative element here, he not only thrived for Team USA over the summer but also checks a number of narrative boxes that voters would never admit looking for. He also meets our scoring criteria at 26.3 points per game and is leading a team that has battled for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference thus far. He’s challenging the belief that Minnesota was eliminated from title contention by the Rudy Gobert deal and playing for a small-market team. Additionally, he has probably given the NBA an opportunity to discover its next outstanding American player, considering the last five MVP winners are all foreign-born. Edwards’ case structurally resembles Derrick Rose’s 2011 campaign in that he is the top scorer on the top defence for an overachieving team.
He hasn’t been particularly effective this season, though. He isn’t an elite playmaker. Although he has played outstanding defence, Gobert and Jaden McDaniels outshine him. Edwards will eventually come up in discussions about MVPs, but it seems like we’re a year or two early. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, whose chances are somewhat lower at most bookies (usually hovering around 16-to-1) is probably comparable. While his numbers are adequate on an individual basis, at 25, he is Oklahoma City’s oldest starter. All his youthful teammates need is a little more experience. The Thunder are winning at the moment. upcoming season I think they’ll be fantastic. Although Edwards and Gilgeous-Alexander have a chance to win, the value proposition in this contest is small because of the likelihood that they won’t.
Thankfully, there’s another outsider with considerably better odds. Tyrese Haliburton is currently sitting right on the edge of all of our usual forecasters, with odds as long as 80-to-1 at BetRivers. Twenty-five points a game is the standard MVP baseline. The average for Haliburton is 24.7. Although he was an All-Star on that track before injuries in the second half of the season kept him off most teams’ votes, he did not receive All-NBA recognition the previous season. A player between the ages of 24 and 28 is what we’re searching for. Haliburton will turn 24 later in the regular season; he is currently 23.
Haliburton should, by all accounts, be placed in the same “give it another year” category as Edwards and Gilgeous-Alexander. Most likely, he does. For 80-to-1 odds, though? There’s some statistical evidence to imply he’s here now, and I’m ready to take the chance.
At this rate, he will just be the tenth player in the NBA’s 50-40-90 shooting club. In the seasons in which they reached that level, Stephen Curry, Steve Nash, and Dirk Nowitzki were the other three players to accomplish that feat. Larry Bird and Kevin Durant, two other players, did the same at different stages of their careers. High-value shots are being produced by Haliburton for himself and his colleagues.
In relation to those colleagues, Haliburton leads the NBA in assists per game with 12.5, but it’s the variety of assists he’s dishing out this season that have really set him apart. In the NBA, Trae Young ranks second with 11.2 assists per contest. But each game, Haliburton’s assists generated 33.6 points. Young’s only produce 28.3. Right present, Haliburton is leading the NBA in assists when it comes to dishing out 3-pointers to teammates. With 11 points created on assists per game for Haliburton, Young is now the only NBA player in that category.
As of this writing, Haliburton leads the NBA in both combined points and points generated off of assists due to the size of the difference. He is scoring 58.7 points of offence per game on average. Nikola Jokic, the MVP front-runner, at 50.9. Haliburton’s raw numbers here are somewhat boosted by pace. The Pacers rank fourth in the NBA in terms of fast-break points scored per game and are the second fastest club in the league. However, they act in this manner due to Haliburton. Their style is informed by his skill set. His figures may be a little exaggerated, but there’s a good explanation behind them.
The “help” angle is another one here. Jokic, Luka Doncic, Tatum, Embiid, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are currently our top five candidates based on odds at most books. At least one All-Star-caliber teammate is present for each of the five (although Jokic’s running buddy Jamal Murray is presently sidelined). However, with 17.9 points per game, Myles Turner is the only teammate of Haliburton who is now averaging even 15 points. Buddy Hield, Obi Toppin, and Benedict Mathurin are all underwhelming in comparison to expectations. It is unimportant. The Pacers presently boast the top-ranked offence in the NBA thanks to the play of Halliburton.
Undoubtedly, Haliburton’s early-season candidature has flaws. After all, there’s a reason he’s at 80-to-1. Haliburton is, to put it mildly, a poor defender. With 11 games played, the Pacers rank 28th overall on that end of the court, which is worse. It will be difficult for them to keep up their current 52-win pace, particularly if they get hurt again. The East is so strong that it might not matter even if the Pacers do manage to keep up that pace. Assume Boston, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee place higher than Indiana in the standings. Being the #4 seed doesn’t mean you can’t succeed. Jokic, ranked as the sixth seed, just emerged victorious, as did Russell Westbrook. Nevertheless, the lack of teammates characterises that as a rarity. Kevin Durant left Westbrook due to free agency. Murray and Michael Porter Jr. were lost by Jokic due to injuries. Moses Malone in 1979 was the last MVP to receive a seed lower than third after those two. Although they are still uncommon, lower-seeded MVPs are starting to gain some traction.
It’s unlikely that Haliburton will be named MVP. Jokic appears to be on a rampage right now, heading towards a third trophy, but there are still about 70 games left in the schedule, so it’s too soon to make any firm predictions. It is safe to assume that Haliburton currently values an absurd 80-to-1 ratio. He is the valuable dark horse on the board, if there is one.
